A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
