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"I will be sitting in this office by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, adding that if the interview proceeded smoothly, he might invite the interviewer into Number 10 for another chat in 2026.

There is never truly downtime for leaders. Just an hour before we sat down, Starmer had been on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to understand what on earth had transpired in Venezuela, where his close friend, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once the discussion, which was much longer than normal, had concluded, Maduro had been charged in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

But as the year commences, Sir Keir seems to have had a degree of a reboot. Maybe even just a bit of relaxation with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

That certainly seemed to have left him in improved morale than at the sluggish tail end of 2025, a terrible year politically for him.

Yet, are he and his colleagues being unrealistic if they think his standing are set to get better?

Leadership Questions

The grisly reality for the PM is that a significant number of his party members think he's not very good at his job. Some of them would rather take a risk and get him out sooner rather than later.

But Sir Keir was rejecting the idea during our conversation on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he told me he'd be "evaluated at the general election", arguing nobody would strip his electoral mandate from him – even if the best chance of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 could be for Labour to replace leader.

"We are in the battle of our generation and I plan to be at the forefront," he said.

The May Elections

The issue for the PM is that he will be judged well ahead of then – in a major set of elections in May throughout the UK. He tried to protest, maybe excessively, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

Accurate – in part. But although he may be reluctant to concede it, No 10 will be held accountable by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir stating that there were no scenario under which he would walk away, even if one of his MPs challenged him for the job, if those elections be very poor for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He tried to explain his unpopularity by saying the voters was reasonably eager for things to change. He tried to persuade the interviewer, and the public, that 2026 would be a change.

The economic situation would strengthen in the face of rising unemployment, he claimed, when plans the government implemented during their initial rocky year began to show results.

• He vowed to empty asylum hotels ahead of the current deadline of 2029, but he did not set a firm date on that.
• He said too, with the caveat that it was not a done deal, that a settlement in Ukraine felt closer now than at any point since Russia's full-scale invasion.
• He stated for the first time that Western allies were now talking about how to combine US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to protect a potential peace.

His central argument is that soon the country will "turn the corner".

Familiar Arguments

The prime minister may have spoken with more energy than observed from him for a some time – more relaxed, maybe, with more time to talk.

But despite facing calls from various quarters for a more decisive strategy, with much more political direction, more dynamism, more speed and more immediacy, his explanations were repeated ones.

When he finds himself in this much political difficulty, is a different approach required a change of tack?

No administration, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for an extended period, has everything its as planned.

Sir Keir's challenges are not just because governing is difficult, but because he and his colleagues have made mistakes, including in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister told me that he regretted saying he was "pleased" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an controversy when past remarks he'd previously made – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Sir Keir blamed "the system" for not realising what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.

And he is courting obvious political risks as the year gets going. His friendship with the US president entails a new jeopardy after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over a long period, the notion he would be comfortable with this kind of intervention seems implausible.

International Law and Brexit

He stated he was a "career-long champion of international law" but we "simply lack the complete details at the moment".

Opponents demanded condemn it prior to we spoke. And the administration is likely to face further scrutiny to give an clear view in Parliament in the near future.

There has also always been simmering tension in the Labour party to reverse or renegotiate some of the consequences of Brexit.

The PM rejects he's pursuing that, but his new firmer commitment to integrate further with the EU's single market – the huge economic European trading zone – will likely provoke howls that he is going back on his vow never to try to undo the decisions that followed Brexit.

A commitment to integrate into more of the single market will satisfy some on his side of the party, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to