Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
